Scotland vs New Zealand preview: Graham boost as Scots chase historic All Blacks win at Murrayfield

Scotland have received a timely boost with Darcy Graham and Matt Fagerson available for Saturday’s meeting with New Zealand, as Gregor Townsend’s side attempt to end their long wait for a first victory over the All Blacks.

The Nations Championship clash kicks off at 2.10pm GMT at Scottish Gas Murrayfield. Full broadcast and streaming details are in our Scotland vs New Zealand how-to-watch guide.

Last year’s meeting showed both the opportunity and the difficulty. Scotland recovered from a 17-point half-time deficit to draw level, only for New Zealand to pull away and win 25–17.

Townsend’s side now have another chance on home soil, with Nations Championship points adding to the significance of a fixture that has repeatedly brought them close to a breakthrough.

Scotland team news: Graham and Fagerson available

Graham has recovered from a calf problem and trained fully on Tuesday, while Fagerson is available after a groin issue. Skills and contact coach Peter Horne confirmed their availability in an update reported by The Scotsman.

There are setbacks elsewhere. Jamie Ritchie has withdrawn with an ankle injury and tighthead prop Elliot Millar Mills with a knee problem.

Uncapped Edinburgh prop Ollie Blyth-Lafferty has been called up alongside club team-mates D’arcy Rae and Freddy Douglas, giving Townsend additional options before he names his matchday squad.

Scotland’s starting XV is due to be announced on Thursday. Sione Tuipulotu captains the squad, with Finn Russell, Blair Kinghorn and Huw Jones among the established attacking options.

New Zealand team news: Mo’unga and Blackadder miss out

The All Blacks also have significant absentees. Richie Mo’unga and Ethan Blackadder will miss the Scotland Test as they continue their recovery from injuries, while Ardie Savea, Tyrel Lomax and Caleb Clarke were among those unavailable for the tour.

Codie Taylor captains Dave Rennie’s squad, which still includes Damian McKenzie, Beauden Barrett, Will Jordan and Cam Roigard.

Forwards coach Jason Ryan has made clear that New Zealand intend to select their strongest available side. Speaking in comments reported by RugbyPass, he stressed the importance of building combinations and dealing with Scotland’s ability to move the ball quickly into wide areas.

Where Scotland vs New Zealand could be won

Scotland’s best route to an upset is to give Russell time and options. Quick possession would allow him to bring Tuipulotu and Jones into the game before New Zealand’s defence has settled, with Graham’s availability adding a dangerous finishing option.

That puts considerable responsibility on the forwards. Scotland need secure lineout ball, effective clearing at the breakdown and enough discipline to avoid repeatedly handing the visitors territory.

The other challenge is sustaining their performance. Last year’s comeback demonstrated that Scotland could trouble New Zealand; the closing stages showed how little room there is for a lapse once the match is in the balance.

New Zealand’s injury list offers encouragement, but Scotland cannot afford to give their remaining playmakers loose possession or easy opportunities to counter-attack.

What is at stake in the Nations Championship?

Scotland enter the November fixtures second in the Northern Hemisphere standings, one point behind France, after July wins over Argentina and Fiji either side of a defeat by South Africa.

They host Australia and Japan after New Zealand, with the final standings determining the match-ups at the competition’s finals weekend in London. Scottish Rugby’s Nations Championship guide explains the route to those fixtures.

Dave.Sport prediction

Scotland have the attacking quality to make this another close contest. Their chances will depend on protecting possession and staying composed when New Zealand apply pressure late on.

Our prediction: Scotland 23–28 New Zealand.