Top four race: Dunne warns Chelsea face Champions League battle

• Richard Dunne says four Champions League places are up for grabs, with Chelsea and Liverpool the two incumbents most at risk of missing out.
• Speaking to Football London, Dunne names Manchester City and Arsenal as the clear top two in the title race.
• Liverpool mounted the third-worst title defence in Premier League history, behind only Chelsea in 2015-16 and Leicester City in 2016-17.

Chelsea and Liverpool Champions League credentials questioned

Champions League places are strongly contested every season. Richard Dunne, the former Manchester City and Everton defender, rates Chelsea among the two clubs most likely to fall short of one this time.

Liverpool, champions two seasons ago, are the other name on his list. Recent history supports the warning.

Last year, Liverpool mounted the third-worst title defence in Premier League history, behind only Chelsea’s collapse in 2015-16 and Leicester City’s slide in 2016-17.

Both of those title-winning sides finished outside the top four the following season. A pattern Dunne clearly has in mind when he talks about vulnerability at the top of the table.

Chelsea know that history well themselves, a period revisited in our reflections on the 2016-17 title campaign.

This season has brought its own upheaval off the pitch, from Clearlake taking full control at Stamford Bridge to deadline day discussions over Enzo Fernandez, all while the club tries to keep pace in a division Dunne describes as unusually crowded.

Speaking to Football London, Dunne set out where he expects the four Champions League places to go this term.

“Whether Tottenham or Manchester United can get going, I’m not sure. Arsenal, Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool are probably the four. Chelsea and Liverpool the two most in danger (of missing out),” he said.

Full detail on his comments is available in our full report on Dunne’s top-four warning.

The expert angle: Chelsea and Liverpool most in danger of missing top four

Dunne’s central point is simple: the title race and the top-four race are separate conversations. Chelsea sit on the wrong side of both.

“The top two is between City and Arsenal. It’s going to be a really tight call,” he told Football London, ruling Chelsea and Liverpool out of the title picture before turning to the qualification battle beneath it.

Asked which of the established top-four clubs carries the most risk of dropping out. Dunne named the clubs without hesitation.

“Liverpool and Chelsea will be the main two people are looking at,” he said.

Dunne’s own preference for the title, shaped by his years as a City defender, is no secret. “I would hope City go on and win it. It’s a really tight call. It’s very difficult this early in the season to try and guess who’s going to come out on top.”

What happens next in the Premier League

Dunne does not expect the picture to stay simple. Beyond the top two and the pair he considers most exposed, he lists a wide group of challengers below them. “I think Brentford and Brighton could also be up there,” he offered.

“Then there’s Brighton, Brentford, possibly Newcastle, possibly Tottenham, possibly Villa. Probably another seven or eight who can challenge for it.

“It does make for an exciting season,” said Dunne.

It is not just City and Arsenal pulling clear at the top. It is seven or eight clubs pushing from below for the remaining Champions League places behind them.

For Chelsea, no single fixture changes that equation. Every match between now and the end of the season carries the weight of a race with more genuine contenders than it has had in years. Dunne’s assessment leaves the club needing points, not reputation, to regain Champions League football.

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