Springboks v All Blacks Baltimore: series decider doubles as a 2031 World Cup audition

By Jack Shaw · Baltimore, Maryland · Published: 13:20 BST

• South Africa lead New Zealand 2-1 going into the final match of their four-Test series, which kicks off at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Saturday.
• The Boks took last weekend’s Soweto Test 29-24, and the two squads then shared a flight from South Africa to the United States.
• World Rugby chief executive Alan Gilpin is treating the fixture as a staging post towards the 2031 World Cup, which the US will host — with 25-plus cities still in the venue process.

Springboks v All Blacks Baltimore is a genuine series decider and a sales pitch in the same 80 minutes. South Africa lead 2-1 and can close out “Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry” on neutral ground; World Rugby, meanwhile, gets to find out whether the biggest fixture it owns can fill an NFL stadium on the opening weekend of the NFL season. Both questions get answered on Saturday.

What is at stake in Baltimore

The Springboks arrive one win from taking the series after a 29-24 victory in Soweto, and the All Blacks arrive needing to square it. The logistics have been as unusual as the venue: both squads flew out of South Africa together shortly after that game, which is not how Test rugby’s fiercest rivalry normally does its travel. In Baltimore the forecast is hot and sticky with thunderstorms possible — another variable in a match neither side has any local reference point for.

The timing is the part World Rugby cannot control. This is the NFL’s first full weekend, with the Baltimore Ravens themselves out of town in Indianapolis to face the Colts. For the full rolling timeline on the series and the autumn schedule around it, follow the coverage on the JOE sport hub.

The expert angle: rugby is chasing America while America comes to rugby’s door

The irony Gilpin himself points out is the most interesting thing about this weekend. As rugby stages its showpiece in an NFL stadium, the NFL is playing a regular-season game at the Melbourne Cricket Ground — one of the great cathedrals of the sporting world rugby grew up alongside. Two codes are raiding each other’s heartlands on the same Saturday, and only one of them is doing it from a position of financial strength.

That is why the venue process matters more than the scoreline. “We’ve still got 25-plus cities involved in that process, which is fantastic in terms of engagement and enthusiasm,” Gilpin said. “We’ve now done all the basic feasibility, on, ‘Can we play World Cup-standard rugby in these venues, natural turf,’ all the things we’ve got to take into consideration.” Submissions on commercials and economics are now arriving city by city, he added, with NFL and MLS calendars layered on top.

The harder sell is the Six Nations. Gilpin has said World Rugby would help any union that wanted to move a Championship match stateside, using Ireland v Italy in Boston or New York as his illustration — while stressing it is not a live discussion. The unions were less enthusiastic. England have effectively ruled themselves out because Twickenham matchdays are too lucrative to give away, and on Friday the IRFU shut the door too: “There are currently no plans or discussions, from an IRFU perspective, regarding Six Nations matches being played in the United States.” Their reasoning is the one World Rugby will keep running into: the Six Nations “holds a special place for supporters across all participating unions”. Selling America a World Cup is one thing. Asking European fans to give up a home fixture to do it is quite another.

So which matters more on Saturday — South Africa closing out the series, or the size of the crowd that turns up to watch them do it? For more on where the northern hemisphere sits in this cycle, read our piece on the RFU extending Steve Borthwick past the 2028 Six Nations.